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Climate Talks in Copenhagen — Milepost or Turning Point?

By LISA FRIEDMAN of ClimateWire
Published: December 7, 2009

It has taken nearly 20 years to bring the world to this pivotal moment in climate change politics.

Along the roller-coaster ride toward an international agreement, expectations have soared and plummeted dozens of times — sometimes within a matter of days. But as nations convene today in Copenhagen for the world’s largest global warming summit, one thing is new: For the first time, every major greenhouse gas polluter in the world has a promise and a plan to cut carbon.

What that change signifies still isn’t clear. Few think the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change conference, which runs through Dec. 18, will conclude with a new international treaty. Too many countries are still sparring over major issues for that. Moreover, the nation others expect to lead the world — the United States — still has not passed the legislation required to cut emissions.

But analysts say the combination of last-minute pledges by the United States, India and China, building upon proposals by Europe, Japan, Norway, Brazil, Indonesia and others, may have fundamentally altered the landscape. Meanwhile, the expected arrival of President Obama and nearly 90 other world leaders toward the summit’s end lends a sense of urgency never before seen in global climate talks.

“Negotiators now have the clearest signal ever from world leaders to craft solid proposals to implement rapid actions,” insisted U.N. climate chief Yvo de Boer in a statement on the eve of the talks.

“Never in 17 years of climate negotiations have so many different nations made so many firm pledges together,” he said. “Copenhagen is already a turning point in the international response to climate change.”

The final target, said Eileen Claussen, president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and Strategies for the Global Environment, is crafting an agreement that will legally bind every major economy in the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The new treaty, if it comes, would replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which required 37 wealthy nations to cut emissions an average 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2012, but made no demands on rapidly growing economies like China’s.

A ’springboard’ to where?

“The real question for Copenhagen is how far it moves us toward that goal,” Claussen said, adding that the summit needs to be a “springboard to a ratifiable treaty, and not just a pledging conference.”

At issue over the next two weeks is whether both industrialized and developing nations can agree to collectively cut emissions far enough to avert the worst consequences of global warming.

But the fights won’t be just about concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. They will be about trade and jobs. They will be about fears industries have about the upfront costs to reducing CO2 and uncertainties about the long-term gains of clean energy.

And, to some extent, they also will be a proxy debate for how the global economy will reshape itself in the coming century, and how much responsibility emerging powerhouses like China, India and Brazil should have to shoulder as the world’s economic forces shift.

The streets of Copenhagen will be a clogged climate circus — mobs of protesters, clanging church bells, street theater and even an actual circus sponsored by local municipalities to promote nature to children. The chaos will continue inside the Bella Center conference hall, where U.N. officials are juggling accreditation applications from twice the center’s 15,000-person capacity.

Environmental activists will roam the halls, giving out “angry mermaid” and “fossil of the day” awards to countries it deems to be hurting the climate talks. Skeptics will hold court, denouncing scientists for trying to quash debate on rising temperatures. Political figures from Republican California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to independent New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will tout policies. Business groups and entrepreneurs will lend the conference the flavor of a job fair, hawking everything from solar panels to straw ethanol.

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